2024 Playbook Football Questions Interviews
1. What is your primary style of handicapping?
Hybrid style of analytics and simulation modeling.
2. What is your “golden rule” of handicapping?
Don't chase losses. Just a couple of forced bets can destroy a weekend's worth of hard-earned profits.
3. What is the first thing you look for when handicapping a game?
Before I start looking at specific stats and trends for a particular game, I gather all of the "background info" first: odds, weather, injury reports, and note-worthy news items.
4. Which team statistic do you value the most?
YPP: Yards Per Point. I first saw this stat in one of Phil Steele's college football magazines. It is simply the amount of yards gained (offense) or allowed (defense) divided by the number of points scored (offense) or allowed (defense). It is an easy way to look at the efficiency of an offense or defense. OYPP should be low and DYPP is best when it is high.
5. What do you like the most about the expanded college football playoff?
Regular season losses shouldn’t have their importance weighted based on the time of year they occurred. Everyone seems to complain about Florida State being snubbed, and while that was wrong, I believe the situation that Georgia found itself in last year was equally unjust. They lost their first game in 2 years but were penalized much more severely because it happened at the end of the year in the SEC Championship, rather than at the beginning or middle of the year, like Alabama or Texas, respectively.
6. Which college football coach commands your attention from a handicapping perspective?
Penn State's James Franklin. Many in the Penn State fan base are tired of Franklin's repeated failures against Ohio State and Michigan, but from a gambling perspective, Franklin is printing money at Penn State. In the last 30 regular season games in which the Nittany Lions are favored, they are 28-2 SU and an astounding 23-6-1 (79.3%) ATS!!! That includes a run of 13-1-1 ATS in the last 15 regular season contests. He may be unable to break that glass ceiling set by the Buckeyes and Wolverines but he feasts on the lesser teams.
7. My all-time favorite college football player is:
My all-time favorite college football player is me. As the 9th-string QB at Sacred Heart University, I led the Pioneer JV squad to heights never before achieved by the second-year program (a 2-game winning streak). My second favorite player was Penn State linebacker LaVar Arrington. After watching his "LaVar Leap" against Illinois in 1998, I discovered that Superman was, in fact, real.
8. Which college football team is most likely to win this season's playoff?
Handicappers always like to make the sexy, unknown pick to win everything. I'm boring, and pick big favorites. Georgia returns 8 starters on offense and 16 overall and QB Carson Beck may not be the most talented, but he is a 5th-year senior who has a career 71.2% completion percentage and a 13-1 record as a starter. That kind of stability and leadership at the quarterback position is rare these days and uber-valuable.
9. Biggest surprise college football team this season?
My biggest surprise team for 2024 is the Virginia Tech Hokies. They had a rough start to the 2023 campaign, going 2-4 out of the gates. Second-year head coach Brent Pry got things back on track and the Hokies went 5-2 in the second half of the year, including a 41-20 over a ranked Tulane squad. The "Boys from Blacksburg" return 22 starters from a year ago, including the entire offense. QB Kyron Drones is the prototypical dual-threat QB, throwing for 2085 and rushing for 818 yards while accounting for 22 combined touchdowns.
10. Biggest college football bust this season?
The award for biggest disappointment in 2024 goes to the USC Trojans. Not that much was expected from the Trojans this year as they play their inaugural Big Ten season, but they may rack up 8 or more losses this season. They have a brutal schedule, starting off with LSU in the Vegas Kickoff Classic. They have road games at Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, Washington, and then their annual "Battle for LA" against UCLA. They may lose four of those games. Then they host Utah State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Rutgers, and Nebraska, and then close out the year with Notre Dame. I see another 4 losses in that group. The classic comedy "Airplane!" gave us the quote "I picked the wrong time to quit smoking/sniffing glue...etc" USC picked the wrong time to break in a new QB and move into a conference that actually plays defense.
11. Biggest NFL bust this season?
The 2024-25 season could be a disappointing one for the rabid fanbase of the Dallas Cowboys. The calendar year started horribly with the 48-37 blowout loss at home to the Green Bay Packers in the Wild Card round last year. Their biggest off-season acquisition was the re-signing of their former workhorse running back, Ezekiel Elliott, after his one season away from the "Big D". However, Zeke has seen his yards per game decrease every year since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2016. Dallas is using Elliott to replace the 2x-1000-yard rusher Tony Pollard, who is moving on to Tennessee. By all accounts, the Cowboys had a solid draft that addressed their needs. Yet we've heard this song and dance time and time again from the experts, and every year ends in frustration and disappointment. Dallas has not won multiple playoff games in a single season since their last Super Bowl in 1995-96. Few teams continue to generate the level of buzz and hype without delivering as "America's Team" does and it looks as though this season will produce more of the same.
12. Biggest surprise NFL team this season?
I expect big things from the Green Bay Packers this year. While it was a little disappointing to see them let fan-favorite RB Aaron Jones go, they filled his shoes quite well with former Raider running back Josh Jacobs. It was a tale of two seasons for first-year starting QB Jordan Love. The first half of his season was a struggle for Love, as the Packers stumbled out to a 2-5 record. The final 10 games saw him complete 68.7% of his passes for 2667 yards, 21 TDs to 3 INTs while leading Green Bay to a 7-3 record, beating the eventual Super Bowl champions Kansas City 27-19. He went 16-21 for 272 and 3 TDs in his win at Dallas and almost led the Packers to another underdog road win against the 49ers, losing 24-21. The biggest acquisition, however, was the signing of the former New York Giants safety Xavier McKinney. McKinney will instantly make a huge impact on a Packer secondary that was next-to-last in interceptions last year. I love Green Bay at +185 to win the NFC North and will take a little sprinkle of +1900 to win the Super Bowl.
13. Which NFL team is most likely to win this season's Super Bowl?
I really like what the Philadelphia Eagles have done this off-season. First and foremost, they replaced both of their coordinators and all I can say is good riddance. They've lost some of their heart on both sides of the ball, with long-time Eagles center Jason Kelce and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox both retiring. But they brought back locker favorites Avonte Maddox, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Brandon Graham. They also replaced the traded Hassan Reddick with former New York Jet DE Bryce Huff. However, the signing of free agent running back Saquon Barkley has Eagles fans dreaming of their second Lombardi Trophy. Barkley is perhaps the most athletically gifted running back in the NFL but has struggled to stay healthy. In a Philly offense with a plethora of weapons around him, Saquon won't be asked to shoulder the offensive load as he was in New York. The Eagles haven't had a running back rush for over 1300 yards since Shady McCoy did so in 2014. When the Eagles made their last Super Bowl run two seasons ago, they were led by RB Miles Sanders and his 1,269 yards. Saquon started ahead of Sanders when they were in the same backfield at Penn State.
14. My favorite all-time NFL player is -
I'm a little old-school when it comes to the NFL and because of this, my favorite player of all time is Joe Montana.
15. NFL MVP this season will be -
The NFL MVP should just be re-named "Most Valuable Quarterback", as it hasn't been won by another position since 2012 when RB Adrian Peterson brought home the award. Because of this, I'm going with Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts. He struggled last season with turnovers, but accounted for 38 TDs rushing and passing combined. With the introduction of an All-Pro running back in Barkley and a coach not afraid to call running plays, Hurts should be able to perform without the weight of the entire offense. I expect him to put up career numbers better than his 2022 season when he finished 2nd in the voting to Patrick Mahomes.
16. NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year this season will be -
Former Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill put up very solid numbers in Kansas City before becoming a video game down in Miami. Rookie WR Xavier Worthy ran a faster 40-yard dash at the combine than Hill did. New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson won the award in 2022 with 83 receptions,1103 yards, and 4 TDs. I think those numbers are more than accessible to the speedster out of Texas.
17. Who is your favorite recording artist?
Pearl Jam.
18. What is your favorite song?
Be Like That by 3 Doors Down.
19. What is your favorite movie?
Disney's "Miracle"
20.If I had one last meal, it would be:
Med. rare steak, baked potato, buttered broccoli and a couple of Sam Adams Boston Lagers.
